Marina Silva’s Unclear Endorsement Capacity: Reflections on Brazilian Election Results

Is Marina Silva able and willing to endorse? Who will win the battle for signification of change? After the main text, some wild speculation on countering the right-wing momentum of São Paulo with Lula the governor and more serious speculation on the second round of the presidential election.

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Electoral Impact of the Tragic Death of Eduardo Campos

One of the three leading presidential candidates of Brazil, Eduardo Campos, died in a plane crash today. Even if this is the time for condolences, political speculation on the impact of this tragic event is starting. This speculation can also be seen as an indicator of the importance his legacy. Let me offer some very preliminary remarks on what might happen now.

The main question that will be asked in the coming hours and days is whether his vice presidential candidate Marina Silva will take over the main candidacy. My guess is that even if there are likely to be important actors within the party of Campos who do not particularly like Marina Silva, her previously huge popularity makes her the most likely person to take over the main candidacy. Continue reading